Portland Ranks High on Hip List

The real question is, "Are they ranking Hipsters? or Hippies?"

I think the answer lies in both. The categories for criteria were: Culture, Music, Sports, Housing, Young Populaton, Education and Alternative Activities.  Both classes fall into appreciation of all of these interests.

Portland ranked #4, behind San Francisco, Boston and Denver respectively. The study was made complete by the folks at Sperling's Best Places, and the fine people that make EDGE Shave Gel? Because the study was called Cities on the Edge.

Hippie vs Hipster

Oregon Unemployment is down again

Unemployment is down to 9.6% now in Oregon. High number? Yes. On it's way down? Yes. Heading in the opposite direction than the national rate? Yes, again. All signs about the job market have been positive. We are 2 points lower than our peak at 11.6% which was almost 2 years ago in June 2009. And down from 9.9% last month.

It's a pretty diverse job creation too. All sectors were seeing increases. From hospitality to health, and of course tech manufacturing. The only sectors that saw decreases are government and financial.

It's about Household Creation, not Population

Population growth always stimulates the housing market.  It's the roof over your head that is required.  Whether it's for a rental, or a permanent residence, population growth always helps.  However, we learned a few years ago, that another factor had drastically decreased so much that it basically equalized the population growth and had a negative impact on housing.  Both in rentals and new home construction.  That factor is Household Creation.  More people were moving back in together.  Divorcees were staying the same house longer.  Kids moving home after college.  Parents moving in with their kids.  And roommates taking on more boarders, and couch surfers.  And with double digit unemployment, homeless rates soared. 
The good news is, we may be out of the woods soon.  Household creation is on the rise again.  According to RealtorMagazine we are seeing a boom in new households.  Millions of young adults are beginning to move out of their parents’ homes and create new households at the fastest rate since 2007. Some housing experts are predicting these young adults may provide a major jump to U.S. housing starts--possibly by more than 50 percent, even by next year--and increase housing consumption at a rate nearly double that of the past two years, Bloomberg News reports.

Basically, in 2011 3/4 to 1million new households created are expected.  That's fantastic news.  Before the recession, the US would average at least 1 million each year.  But in 2006 we dipped to 900,000 then 800,000 and by 2010 we hit an all time low of 347,000 new households created.  This is welcome relief for the housing market.


full article http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2011050401?OpenDocument

Less Credit = Less Debt

Is this such a bad thing?  Don't get me wrong, the banks need to release some ridiculous restrictions and free up more money for the economy, or society will find another way.  Like SAVING MONEY. 

Recent reports are saying that Americans are shedding debt at remarkable paces.  Just 5 years ago, Americans were noted as being one of the worst nations for savers.  We spend more than we make.  I'm pretty sure we haven't shed that label just yet, but we are making remarkable strides. 

Here are some of the latest stats:

1. Homeowners have trimmed interest payments alone by 11% — or $67 billion a year — from the peak in 2008, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The nation has slashed total mortgage debt from nearly $11 trillion at the mid-2008 peak to $10.3 trillion in the first three months of 2011, the BEA reports.
3. For the first time since 1998, households are saving more than they're spending on mortgage interest.
4. Mortgage interest consumes 5.27% of the nation's after-tax income, the lowest since 2004 and comparable to the 1980s and '90s
5. The average interest rate on all mortgages — not just new ones — has fallen for 16 consecutive quarters to 5.96%, the lowest since the government started keeping track in 1977.

Paying down the house payment seems to be what people are saving toward.  Funny, because so many people say to me, "Should I stop paying my mortgage, because I am tired of throwing good money toward a bad investment?"  In reality, is it the house, or the mortgage that you have a bad investment?  This study is about people that are able to qualify for better mortgages, lower rates.  They have equity and provable income with good credit.  And therefore they can make the decision to put good money towards good investments, like their home AND their mortgage.

These figures come from the Bureau of Economics Analysis as reported in USA Today, May 5th 2011, and comments made by Mortgage Bankers Association and CoreLogic.

Top 25 Brokerages in US

As reported by RealTrends

Many of these names will mean nothing to some people.  And then again, some of these names will be recognizable to some of you.  When you recognize the names, remember this is the top 25 list of all brokerages in the US.  To understand the differences between office and brokerage, keep in mind that the brand may be a franchise, and that one franchisee owner may own 1 office.  And a group or LLC, may own 20 branded offices.  This list is full of this type as well as singly owned brokerages. 

Ranked by 2010 closed transaction sides

1. NRT LLC
2. HomeServices of America Inc.
3. The Long & Foster Companies Inc.
4. Hanna Holdings Inc.
5. ZipRealty, Inc.
6. Crye-Leike Realtors
7. Prudential Fox & Roach Realtors 
8. Coldwell Banker United
9. Realty USA 
10. Real Estate One .
11. Realty Executives
12. Baird & Warner
13. Realty One Group Inc.
14. Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
15. Ebby Halliday Real Estate Inc.
16. Allen Tate Companies
17. West USA Realty Inc.
18. RE/MAX Results
19. Keller Williams Realty
20. Watson Realty Corp.
21. John L. Scott Real Estate
22. First Weber Group
23. William Raveis Real Estate Inc.
24. First Team Real Estate
25. Hunt Real Estate Corporation/ERA
Source: Real Trends

It's interesting that #5 is a virtual real estate company.  I guess it wouldn't surprise anyone that an online real estate company would do a lot of transactions, since buyer's start their searches on line today.  However, they recently closed many offices and laid off many employees, and began retooling their business model.  I guess that means, lots of traffic doesn't equal lots of profit...

Best brands with office productivity were the Keller Williams brand, making 12 of 25 of the list.  And best brand for solo agent productivity was the Re/Max brand.

Your local Pacific NW players making the list, if you didn't recogize them, were the Barbara Sue Seal Coldwell Banker offices and all John L Scott offices.  I have to give special recognition to Better Home and Garden franchisee owners Mason MacDuffee, some of my previous friends from NorthPoint are helping run this California based conglomerate.

Even the Facebook Giant lives beneath his means

It is rumored that Mark Zuckerberg is buying a $7million dollar home.  When all the other tech giants in the valley are indulging in palatial estates, he is keeping it real.  He enjoys driving an Acura and staying under the radar.  Even the Russian Czar investor of Facebook dropped $100 million on a Palo Alto home, creating one of the largest real estate transactions in the US, while Mark Z hides behind the orange trees of his not-quite half acre plot. 

I'm not down playing the home by any means.  It's not modest, with the 5600sf remodeled turn of the century charm, and salt water pool.  But it is modest in comparison to the billionaires of his category.

Read the whole story.  I love it.

http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-fi-0506-zuckerberg-house-20110506,0,4788589.story?track=rss

More NICKELS for your pocket.

Hey Oregonians!
Are you tired of your garbage and recycling bins looking separated by what is considered trash, recyclable glass, and recyclable for cash?

Ever had a ton of these in the waste of money pile?

Well now there is a new bill that will include juice, tea, energy drinks and many other types of glass, plastic and aluminum drink bottles to the original bottle bill that has changed our state, and cleaned up many other states that have adopted and adapted to this ingenius bill.

Sure we pay for it at the pump, per se, but we get it back with a little effort.  And it ensures and enforces recycling and helps eliminate the temptation of littering. 

The Bottle Bill is nearly 40 years old, and just like any good idea needs to keep up with the times.  So far it has passed the state house, and on to the state senate.  Hopefully it will be approved and adapted in the next couple of years.

http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2011/05/04/oregon-house-passes-bottle-bill-update.html

Percentage of Distressed Sales in the Portland Market

Below is a graph made by the local multiple listing service showing the percentage of homes that are bank owned vs short sale, and compared to traditional transactions.  It's about 20-30%.  Remember a short sale, will likely become a bank owned, if it doesn't move into the SOLD category. 

Look at the size of the short sale listings that become a sale, vs the size of the bank owned that actually become a sale.  Most of the traditional listings that don't make it into the SOLDs, likely are home owners that decide now is not the time to sell, and they stay there.  However, most of the short sale sellers, that are unsuccessful at selling, still move.  When they move on, the house goes back to the bank.  And it will reappear again on the market. 

The inventory of bank owned will likely increase in 2011.  However, they have made their mark already in our marketplace.  Banks are interested in selling for fair market value these days.  It's the short sale sellers that are the motivated ones, that drop their price below fair market value, just to avoid foreclosure.  In these instances, these short sales are likely to fail and become bank owned.  It isn't truly new inventory added to the market.  It's actually the same house, now with a new owner, and typically, the price is fair market value.  The only grumblings are that we don't like what we see considered fair market value any more...

Short Sale Bail Outs. Pick one, MR MegaBank!

House Bill preventing deficiency lawsuits pursued by banks 2 years post short sale transactions.

What Rep Matt Wingard is trying to do, is make short sales easier, less scary for the home owner, and then ultimately it will lead to less foreclosures.

If the home owner and the banks find a happy ground to sell homes in the short sale arena, we will have far less vacant, distressed, liabilities on our hands, that are tearing down our state's housing values. Of course, the job market, the mortgage shrinkage, and overall supply and demand hurts too, but we don't need extra fear added to the equation. Every bit of consumer confidence helps.

Latest Interest Rate News

Latest Interest Rate News as reported by http://www.bankrate.com/ and RisMedia.

RISMEDIA, May 2, 2011—Mortgage rates remained below the 5 percent mark, with the benchmark conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate inching lower to 4.95 percent, according to Bankrate.com’s weekly national survey. The average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.37 discount and origination points.

The average 15-year fixed mortgage stepped down to 4.14 percent, and the larger jumbo 30-year fixed rate reset the low point of the year at 5.40 percent. Adjustable rate mortgages were also lower, with the average 5-year ARM dipping to 3.69 percent and the 7-year ARM dropping to an even 4 percent.

Mortgage rates were lower this week, but the movement in mortgage rates continues to be tame. Mortgage rates have remained within a one-third percentage point band since mid-December. The Federal Reserve did little to rock the boat, holding interest rates steady and changing very little in the post-meeting statement. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s initial press release was a historic event, but uneventful. While the Federal Reserve confirmed that they will halt their bond purchases at the end of June, this has been widely expected and any resulting volatility in bond yields or mortgage rates is far from certain.

Mortgage rates are closely related to yields on long-term government bonds.

The last time mortgage rates were above 6 percent was Nov. 2008. At the time, the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.33 percent, meaning a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,241.86. With the average rate now 4.95 percent, the monthly payment for the same size loan would be $1,067.54, a difference of $174 per month for anyone refinancing now.

The survey is complemented by Bankrate’s weekly Rate Trend Index, in which a panel of mortgage experts predicts which way the rates are headed over the next seven days. The vast majority of panelists, 77 percent, don’t see much of any movement in mortgage rates over the upcoming week. The remainder are split, with 15 percent predicting an increase in mortgage rates and just 8 percent forecasting a decline in mortgage rates over the next seven days.

Ever got one of these speeding tickets?

Light humor today.  This gentleman below, was taking his girlfriend of one week, on a ride on the back of his motorcycle at speeds of 140 mph, through Oregon's less than prestigious logging towns.  Once caught, he gets a ride in the back of a cruiser, and his newly found girlfriend has to find a ride home.  Motorcycle gets a ride on a flatbed towtruck.  "This concludes our 3rd date.  Can I call you next Tuesday"

by Teresa Blackman, kgw.com Staff

Posted on May 2, 2011 at 4:34 PM
Updated yesterday at 4:34 PM

MEHAMA, Ore. – A motorcyclist who was clocked speeding at 140 miles an hour told the officer he was “just having fun,” as he was pulled over and arrested Sunday, authorities said.

Richard Boedigheimer, 33, of Gates was spotted speeding just after 2 p.m. Sunday on Highway 22 west of Mill City.

Sr. Deputy Jeff Nicoloff said at first, Boedigheimer raced off when he tried to pull him over for speeding. But Boedigheimer eventually stopped along Taylor Park Rd SE, Northeast of Mehama.

“Boedigheimer indicated he was ‘just having fun’ with his girlfriend of one week who was a passenger on the back of the motorcycle,” said Lt. Tim Steele with the Marion County Sheriff's Office.

It appeared that the fun stopped there.

Boedigheimer was arrested and lodged in the Marion County Jail on a felony charge of attempting to elude a police officer, reckless driving, recklessly endangering another person, and driving with a suspended license.

“His girlfriend went home, his motorcycle was towed away, and his bail was set at $25,000,” Steele added.

Consumer Confidence by Gallup

This is a follow up to a post I wrote in 2009, shortly after the consumer confidence had spiked from it's previous low of 53.  As you can see 2 years later, the consumer confidence of home buyers is hanging around 70% of people Gallup polled.  Looking back at the last 8 years tells a better story.  People were never more confident then in 2003.  Rates were low, banks were handing out loans, prices seemed to consistently be rising, even if only modestly in some areas of the US.  And then the entire market was pushed over the cliff in '06

So why have the last 3 years been nearly as high as 2005? 

• Have we stopped seeing foreclosures?
• Have the banks suddenly been lending money?
• Is employment the same rate as 2005?
• Have home prices been consistently rising since 2005?

None of the same trends from 2005 seem to exist, so why the confidence?

One reason and that is Affordability.

• Home prices reduced
• Household incomes
• Interest rates, century lows

Those who can buy, are experiencing this perfect storm that no one in 2005 was able to have.  2003-2005 confidence was there, because there was less fear. 

Today, you would agree, there is plenty of fear about our economy.  Sure, it's getting better.  Recovery is supposedly 2 years in the making.  But we are far from robust, and this recovery may never see robust.  Just like there were tiny recessions, we may only see a tiny recovery.

So, today's home buyer's have to deal with fear.  But, they are able to take advantage of unique factors that far over come their own fear.  And that is, home ownership, at remarkable affordability.  Home ownership, for nearly the same as their rents.  2nd time home buyers, matching the same price for their current home, and achieving much more house, for less payment.

For the complete story done by Gallup Poll click here.
www.gallup.com/poll/147248/Majority-Say-Good-Time-Buy-Home.aspx