Who's more right? Zillow or Punxsutawney Phil?

Historically, the Groundhog is wrong 61% of the time.  Technically, his prognostications about our extended winters or early springs, are barely more than correct 1 out of 3 times he comes out of his hole.

This highly efficent way of predicting life's important decisions, made me think of some other reliable sources that are equally incorrect, and yet highly sought after for the results.

How about Zillow's Zestimate, for one example.  We are constantly watching this index to see what our home's values are doing, like a day trader watching a stock rise and fall. 

Zillow Estimates Not Always Accurate, New Study Reveals


A study conducted by The Appraisal Institute shows that the popular house valuation website, Zillow.com, overestimated the value for 40% of the properties by more than 10%, and only 0.88% of the property prices were underestimated by 10% or more. The study suggests that homeowners’ estimates of value may be more accurate than Zillow’s estimates.

This is probably why the CEO of Zillow stated in an interview in New York, that a Zestimate is not an Appraisal, or it would be called Zappraisal. 

I never expected Zestimates to be more accurate than an appraisal.  I just wanted them to out perform a Groundhog.

Alright, so Zillow is a little more accurate than the Groundhog.  Afterall, they are engineers with PHDs, and not furry 4 legged rodents with precognitive logic. 

Steve
PDXhomeGroup