Friday, January 24, 2014

Oregon's economic rebound in 2013 might just move into 2014!

Check out this fantastic article about Oregon's economy for 2013. Job growth, lower unemployment rates, and a hopeful outlook for Oregon's economy in 2014!

Oregon's economic rebound reaches more people in 2013, building momentum into 2014

Oregon’s economic recovery shifted into second gear in 2013.
New data shows the state gained nearly as many jobs last year -- 37,700 -- as in the previous two years combined. Hiring outpaced the national average, and unemployment fell by more than a percentage point, to 7.0 percent, after stalling for much of 2012.
The economy has added back jobs in 13 of the past 15 months.
What set 2013 apart, said state economist Mark McMullen, is that some of the industries and regions left out of the early recovery are now bouncing back, too.
Job gains are spreading beyond the Willamette Valley, and to some of the sectors hardest hit in the recession, such as housing.
The widespread growth should carry over into 2014, McMullen said. “Now that we’re getting more of our economy online, we’re starting to see more typical growth rates for recovery.”
What was a stop-and-start comeback hit greenlights in recent months.
December was no exception. Employers added an estimated 4,400 jobs in Oregon last month, after adjusting for seasonal norms. The better-than-average showing was a contrast to a nationwide hiring slowdown.
The jobless rate, meanwhile, fell from 7.3 percent in November to 7.0 percent. The measure has fallen to a new five year low for several months running, dropping from from 8.1 percent to 7.0 percent since August. It was 8.3 percent a year ago. It’s now the lowest it's been since August 2008, just months before the recession began.
Hiring started picking up this fall throughout the state, and has held steady. Analysts say Oregon gained a revised 4,300 jobs in November, roughly equal to December's gain.
Over the past year, employers have added 3,100 jobs, on average, every month.
The 2.3 percent growth rate outpaced the national average of 1.6 percent. “2013 finally brought some real job growth to Oregon’s economy,” said Nick Beleiciks, a labor economist at the Oregon Employment Department.
  While the private sector contributed most of those gains, government cuts have slowed, meaning public agencies were less of a drag than they had been. The leveling off of local cuts has been especially important for rural economies, McMullen said.
Rural areas are starting to post year-over-year gains, he said, as are metro areas outside of Portland including Salem, Medford and Bend. A more detailed report of annual metro-area growth will be released Monday.
Construction is also bouncing back. Though it slowed in December, it has added 6,800 jobs in the past year, boosting its employment base by nearly 10 percent. Though it was the fastest-growing major industry in the state, it still has a long way to go before again reaching its pre-recession highs.
The professional business services industry, which includes tech, engineering, architectural and legal firms, has added 7,500 jobs since December 2012 and now employs the most workers ever. It expanded 3.8 percent last year, making it the fastest-growing major industry in the state.
Still, there are signs that the economy is far from healed.
  • About 142,000 Oregon workers are underemployed, meaning they are scraping by with fewer hours than they want either because their hours were cut at work or full-time work wasn’t available.
  • Another 132,000 people are completely out of work, and about 31 percent share of those workers have been unemployed for six months or longer. About 17,800 of those workers lost benefits when the federal extensions for unemployment aid weren’t renewed.
  • Even more workers have exited the workforce entirely, and the percentage of working-age adults is at its lowest point in 37 years: 61.0 percent. The labor force drain is one of the reasons the unemployment rate is falling so rapidly. Some of the reasons behind the decline aren’t so bad -- baby boomers are aging into retirement. But some people are still leaving the workforce out of frustration.
As the economy continues to improve, McMullen said, some of those workers should start coming back into the labor force. It’s unclear if and when those people will start showing up in the data, however.
But the economy should keep doing its part and continue its steady growth rate, McMullen said.
--Molly Young


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