Top 10 Population Metros

Nielsen Study Finds Atlanta, Dallas and Phoenix Are Top Markets by Recent Population Growth
November 3, 2008
From MarketWatch, submitted by David Boehmig, President/Founder

Analysis Also Identifies Seven Population Growth Indicators That Strongly Correlate to Fast-Growing Markets, Providing Expansion Opportunities for Retail Industry

NEW YORK, NY, Nov 03, 2008 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) — A new Nielsen Company analysis aimed at uncovering expansion opportunities for the retail industry in a down economy has found that sustained growth is occurring in large metros such as Atlanta, GA; Dallas, TX; and Phoenix, AZ, which ranked as the top three fastest growing markets over the last eight years.

The study, which was conducted by Nielsen Claritas, Nielsen’s leading marketing information source, and based on data compiled as of early 2008, showed that Atlanta and Dallas CBSAs (Core Based Statistical Areas) added more than one million in population since 2000, while the Phoenix CBSA was close at 971,849.

            America's Top 10 Markets by Volume Growth: 2000-2008

                                        Population  2000-2008    2000-2008
1       Atlanta-Sandy Springs, GA        5,357,017      26.1%    1,109,036
2       Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX  6,164,066      19.4%    1,002,522
3       Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ      4,223,725      29.9%      971,849
4       Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX   5,665,312      20.1%      949,905
5       Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA      13,304,944       7.6%      939,317
6       Riverside, CA                    4,170,780      28.1%      915,959
7       Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV          5,384,723      12.3%      588,540
8       New York, NY-NJ-PA              18,871,770       3.0%      548,768
9       Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL        5,526,947      10.4%      519,383
10      Las Vegas-Paradise, NV           1,875,245      36.3%      499,480


Nielsen Claritas Pop-Facts(R) 

Rounding out the top five were the Houston and the Los Angeles CBSAs, which also grew by nearly a million people at 949,905 and 939,317, respectively. A CBSA includes both metropolitan areas of at least 50,000 population and micropolitan areas with a population between 10,000-49,999.

“And while some of these markets like Phoenix and Los Angeles have been hard hit by the recent wave of foreclosures, there has been no mass exodus from these markets or anywhere else. People who have foreclosed most likely have not left the market but rather have just become renters. Faltering markets, such as these, will likely rebound and continue to grow — and their underlying demographics are solid,” said Mike Mancini, Nielsen Claritas Vice President of Data Product Management and co-author of a whitepaper that documented the study’s findings, titled:

“Finding Growth in Challenging Times: Seven Indicators to Evaluate Population Growth.”

These Population Growth Indicators, which strongly correlate to fast-growing markets, are:

1. large land areas,
2. booming suburban rings,
3. widespread affluence,
4. an increasing Hispanic population,
5. diversified employment,
6. long commutes, and
7. the presence of lifestyle shopping centers.

“The indicators give retailers a robust tool to identify locations with significant potential for market expansion — markets that may even lead the way in an economic recovery in the coming years,” said Terry Munoz, Vice President of the Nielsen Claritas Retail, Restaurant and Real Estate Group and the other co-author of the whitepaper.

In looking at each indicator, the study further classified CBSAs into three primary groups: Metro Cities, with populations over 200,000; Metro Towns, with populations between 50,000 and 200,000; and Micro Towns whose populations are under 50,000.

For example, a ranking of the markets with populations under 100,000 people revealed that the top three — Palm Coast, FL, Fernley, NV, and St. George, UT — all grew by more than 50 percent since 2000.

Located beyond congested metros, these markets have attracted jobs, retailers and residents thanks to low crime rates and fewer traffic jams. Some of the smaller markets, like St. George, are close to national parks and wilderness areas that appeal to young families and retirees, according to the whitepaper.

“With this analysis, retailers can quickly assess a market’s potential and determine where it fits into an overall growth strategy,” Munoz said. “Even in a down economy with slow population growth, this innovative modeling approach can suggest expansion opportunities in overlooked markets.”

For more information on how to obtain a copy of the whitepaper please visit www.claritas.com.

About The Nielsen Company

The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com.

Are you glad you escaped the housing bubble?

Kudos to you, if you missed the last housing boom, because you missed the big BUST too.

Investors and homeowners alike, that sat on the sidelines during the last real estate boom, are NOT kicking themselves today.

They may have watched home prices in many markets around the country go up 10% - 20% in one year, and thought...

"Boy, this market is really heated, I'm staying out of it" or "I wish I got in earlier, these prices today are ridiculous"

But, they did not buy earlier, and they did not buy when the market was heated, and they certainly did not buy during the free-falling bust.

What a sigh of relief. No Loss... but, No Gain.

---

Historically, real estate has gone up approximately 4% per year since 1910, almost 100 years. [reference Robert Shiller of Case Shiller from Irrational Exuberance.] Consider inflation, and that hardly seems like a good investment. Consider, leverage by financing real estate, and positive cash flow by income received, and now it looks like a phoenomenal investment.
It can look like a bad investment when you pay all cash, speculate on the appreciation, or have a large negative cash flow. Avoid those things and buy for the long term, and it is a great return.

Let's assume the most recent bust, has erased the gains of the boom. 08 erased 07. 09 erases 06. In some markets 08 may have erased 05 too. BUT, never the less, investors that bought in 2000 still have a 20%-24% gain on average. The same would also be true for some that bought in 06, may have to wait for 2016, but could receive 20%-24% gain as well.

How many times has real estate posted similar losses? The last similar drop was 2 generations ago. It is safe to say, it may not happen again in our lifetime. But if it does, it seems to wipe away recent gains, not total gains. Many buyers that are taking advantage of prices today, are saying, "We are happy to afford today's values, as we were priced out of the market a couple years ago." (not priced out a decade or more ago)

Comparatively, if you invested in the following companies for a decade, do you think you would have similar gains, let alone any of your investment back?

Motorola, Sears, Ford, Citigroup, Fannie Mae, Yahoo, Qwest, Firestone, American Motors, Texaco, Pan Am, Worldcom, Enron, Lehman Brothers, Circuit City.

Energy, Telecom, Finance and Retail Giants... no investment is 100% safe, including real estate. But many of the above companies no longer have any value left, or are facing that fate. Even, I am guilty of owning several on that list, based on raving reviews or a sparkling prospectus. No one could predict their destiny any more than the recent boom/bust mortgage crisis. Whenever something is too good, it usually isn't good forever.

This is not an argument of stock vs. real estate. Rather, I am saying, Real Estate can be viewed as a safer investment, without surrendering your entire investment to a entity that declares itself bankrupt, or corrupt CEO running the company into nothing. There is still something of value with real estate, even in the down turn. Either a roof over your head, or renting the roof over someone else's head.

If the worst is behind us, it could be another 60 years before you have to worry about losing your initial investment in Real Estate. And if you truly owned and financed said property during that period, you would own it free in clear long before that time came!

But if you want to buy or invest, you have to jump in sometime. But when?

The safest time to jump in will be after the bust. No one can predict the perfect time, but watch and see who is buying today, and don't just be the watcher.

Leased for 2 years, Positive Cash Flow

5101 Powell, Blue Springs, MO

$165,900
2 year renter until Nov 2010
$1300 per month
$183 Positive per month
12 Miles to Downtown
1 mile to Bass Pro, Independence Mall, Costco, Lowes
1 Block to Blue Springs Lake
Schools, 8,9 and 10 out of 10 http://www.greatshools.net/

WHY BLUE SPRINGS?
12% population growth, (2x the national average)
Population 53000 people
Household Income $74,000 year
Median price home $174,000 (Affordable)
19% job growth projected next 10 years (Sperling Best Places)

Why Kansas City?

1. 2.5 million people
2. Income is 20% higher, and cost of living 20% lower than both national averages
3. Diverse economy. Federal (IRS, Reserve, Leavonworth) Tech, (Garmin, DST, Cerner), Telecom (Sprint, Verizon), Manufacturing (Hallmark, GM FORD HARLEY), Finance (HR BLOCK, American New Century), Logistics (YRC, BNSF and KC Southern Intermodals)
4. 17 Fortune 1000
5. 48% renter occ, and of those 75% renters live in units 25 years or older. (demand for new housing)
6. 75% of builders build less than 100 homes per year. (no mega developing, or major national builder presence)
7. Positive net migration of 1.2% per year past 10 years.
8. Job growth expected to reach 3% per year in 3 years
9. 4 billion invested in downtown econ, and total of 7 billion including the metro area
10. Great quality of life amenities and high end retail not seen an many other Midwest cities from Dallas to Chicago.
11. 6^th smartest city by Kiplingers. And 2^nd highest college grads in Midwest behind Chicago.

New Construction, Bank Owned and Financed at low down

Total Down at closing = $2,000
$175,000 Price. Appraised $195,000.
Originally priced well above $200,000
Builder could not sell in time before the bank took them back. Now the bank wants to finance for you, Owner or Investor, for $2000 down.

Located on a quiet street in Atlanta Metro, Georgia.
These are big 2000+ square feet, 5 bedroom, 3 bath houses.
Complete move in ready, blinds, fridge, landscaping.
If you want to rent it out, or rent it, the market rent is $1200.
2 Homes just like this are rented for $1200 in the neighborhood.
The Mortgage payment will be $948 for the next 3 years.

If you live in Atlanta, you know about the wonderful reasons to live there.
Which is why over 1 million people have moved there in the last 7 years.
The most growth for any city in the US during the same time.

Put up $2000, and receive $100 per month in return

How about this for a business opportunity?

1. You invest $2000, up front
2. In return, you will get between $89-$163 per month in return
3. You will have your $2000 back in 1.6 years.
4. You keep receiving payments until you ultimately own a $118,000 asset
5. At which point, your monthly receivalbe will now increase to $600 per month
6. Each year, your monthly income may increase 3%, depending on market conditions
7. Each year, the value of your asset could also increase about 3% per year depending on market conditions

Yes, this is a Real Estate Transaction, and it sounds too good to be true.
But it’s not. Take a look at this example:

Just under 10 miles from downtown Atlanta

$118,000 home for $90,000,
That’s $2,000 down and $88,500 borrowed at 6% 30yr fix.
WE CAN FINANCE THESE TERMS
Rents are $925 for similar properties
Beautifully remodeled.
Previously foreclosed on, provides for deep discounts.

Georgia gains the 4^th most population in 2008. US Census.
Atlanta is home to the world’s busiest airport, and 22 of the Fortune 1000 HQ.

Steve Roesch
Market Advisor
Cell: 503-318-6351
steve@northpointgroup.com

Jacksonville, Florida. Great Investments.

Jacksonville appears to have suffered less real estate pricing volatility than most Florida markets. The pricing correction has appeared to slow down in its decline, and many submarkets have actually seen small month over month increases. (study by DataQuick 12/08)

Would I say buy? Yes, But, Buy at a discount!

Reasons Jacksonville is different than other markets:

1. Diverse Economy= Government, Military, Distribution, SeaPort, Financial, Manufacturing, Retail Headquarters, Medical and Telecom


2. 7 of the Forbes 1000 are Headquartered in city of Jacksonville. 2nd most in Florida behind Miami


3. 3rd most population growth in Florida from 2006-2007. Above Tampa, Orlando, and Fort Myers.


4. #8 Best Place for Real Estate Bargains. Forbes Magazine 2008


5. #3 Best City in US for Jobs. Forbes Magazine 2007


6. 9.5% Population Growth 2000-2007

Here are some statistical demographics on the area:

1. 12th Largest city in the US. 805,000. 1.5 million in the MSA


2. Median Home Price $175,000


3. Median Household Income $50,000


4. JaxPort (international foreign trade zone) supports 43,000 jobs


5. US Navy supports 35,000


6. Home of Fidelity Nationa Financial Headquarters


7. Home to PGA Tour Headquarters


8. Home to NFL Franchise -- Jaguars


9. Hosted 2005 NFL Superbowl

Many cities of similar size are not considered for an NFL Franchise, let alone considered sufficient to support a Superbowl.

Jacksonville has an economy strong enough to support and attract amenities that some major markets cannot.

Its location on the coast increases the quality of life component, with less fear of the hurricane factor. Jacksonville waters are a cooler temperature than the rest of Florida, and it is located North of the Gulf Stream. No hurricane has come close since approximately 1964, therefore the insurance rates are lower, making this a better cash flow investment than other cities in Fl.

Where to buy in Jacksonville:

• West of the city. East is pricier because it's coastal. The median income is a tad low for the median home prices. To buy conservative, you want to invest where it is most affordable for the majority of home buyers.


• Near the 295 Loop. Most of the jobs are downtown and at the Ports. JaxPort has 3 major locations and the Naval Bases have two. Commute to all 3 job sectors is best near this major arterial freeway.

Property Profile:

Remodeled Foreclosures, allow you to purchase at discount, without the headache of repairs, extra liens on title, and large capital investments. Companies, NorthPoint, can help find the safest investment, complete with improvements and with tenants already in place.

Be ahead of the curve.

Steve@NorthPointGroup.com
503-213-3550
rushsteve1 @ skype
http://www.linkedin.com/in/steveroesch